Poll: Powers Play

Q1. On Tuesday, the Senate advanced a war powers resolution 50-47 in a procedural vote, the first time in eight tries it passed that hurdle. Four Republicans backed the measure, and three were absent for the vote.

If passed, a wars power resolution would require President Trump to gain Congressional approval to continue the war in Iran. For the resolution to pass, it would need House and Senate approval and Trump's signature as president. The most recent House vote, taken last week, was deadlocked at 212 - 212.

If a war powers resolution reaches Trump’s desk, what do you think is most likely to happen?

overall

custom

male

female

rep

ind

dem

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Trump signs it

5%

4%

5%

9%

4%

2%

0%

12%

2%

3%

5%

Trump vetoes, but winds down the war

17%

34%

12%

6%

24%

16%

18%

14%

17%

Trump vetoes, continues the war

73%

70%

75%

48%

79%

89%

52%

68%

76%

79%

73%

Not sure

5%

8%

3%

8%

5%

3%

24%

4%

3%

5%

Don't care

0%

Q2. Some believe the resolution won't advance further in the Senate because the GOP will have the votes to defeat it once the three absent GOP senators return to vote.

However, two of those Senators, Tom Tillis (NC) and John Cornyn (TX) are no longer in the market for Trump's reelection endorsement — Tillis isn’t seeking reelection, and Trump recently endorsed Cornyn's primary opponent.

Sen Bill Cassidy was similarly out of the market for Trump reelection support after he lost his primary Saturday in a race Trump had campaigned against him. Tuesday was Cassidy’s first war powers vote since being knocked out of his race for reelection, and he switched his vote to support the war powers resolution after previously voting against it.

Why did Cassidy switch to support the resolution, and will Tillis or Cornyn also switch?

overall

custom

male

female

rep

ind

dem

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Group A

Cassidy wanted to punish Trump

36%

46%

29%

78%

29%

10%

57%

39%

34%

29%

36%

Was free to vote his mind after loss

54%

42%

63%

16%

60%

78%

33%

43%

58%

64%

54%

Simply changed his opinion

1%

2%

0%

2%

1%

0%

2%

1%

Other

1%

0%

1%

0%

1%

0%

1%

Not sure

8%

10%

6%

4%

9%

11%

10%

18%

4%

8%

Group B

Tillis will switch to "yea"

9%

6%

12%

24%

9%

7%

8%

9%

Cornyn will switch to "yea"

5%

6%

4%

11%

4%

19%

3%

7%

5%

Both

46%

37%

53%

44%

38%

49%

24%

31%

54%

53%

46%

Neither

12%

19%

7%

18%

11%

8%

24%

9%

16%

12%

Not sure

28%

26%

28%

34%

27%

10%

48%

27%

13%

28%

Don't care

1%

0%

1%

0%

1%

Q3. Advocates for the war powers resolution argue that passing it is simply adhering to the Constitution, which requires Congressional approval for wars.

Opponents say presidents for many decades have conducted military efforts similar to those in Iran without Congressional approval, and if passed would be to the detriment of the war effort, showing opponents a lack of domestic resolve.

Would passing the measure weaken the war effort?

overall

custom

male

female

rep

ind

dem

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Yes, but I still want it passed

25%

23%

27%

7%

33%

36%

0%

37%

19%

30%

25%

Yes, and I don't want it passed

25%

34%

19%

66%

13%

1%

24%

26%

27%

21%

25%

No, and I want it passed

35%

29%

39%

3%

42%

55%

29%

21%

43%

40%

35%

No, but I don't want it passed

8%

7%

8%

18%

8%

1%

24%

7%

6%

8%

Not sure

6%

7%

4%

7%

24%

9%

4%

3%

6%

Don't care

0%