NYC subway station Jan 14, 2026. Getty
Q1. This weekend, the documentary Melania will open across 1,500 theaters in the US. The film was shot in the twenty days leading up to the 2025 inauguration.
The studio that made the movie, Amazon MGM, wrote in its preview memo: "Step inside Melania Trump’s world as she orchestrates inauguration plans, navigates the complexities of the White House transition, and moves her family back to the Nation’s Capital. With exclusive footage capturing critical meetings, private conversations, and never-before-seen environments."
Movie tracking service NRG predicts a $5m weekend box office, which would be in line with other documentaries opening in 1,500 theaters. Betting markets predict a box office of $1.75m, and an average rating of 9% on Rotten Tomatoes (the percentage of professional critics that give it a positive review).
What is your view? (check all that apply)
The studio that made the movie, Amazon MGM, wrote in its preview memo: "Step inside Melania Trump’s world as she orchestrates inauguration plans, navigates the complexities of the White House transition, and moves her family back to the Nation’s Capital. With exclusive footage capturing critical meetings, private conversations, and never-before-seen environments."
Movie tracking service NRG predicts a $5m weekend box office, which would be in line with other documentaries opening in 1,500 theaters. Betting markets predict a box office of $1.75m, and an average rating of 9% on Rotten Tomatoes (the percentage of professional critics that give it a positive review).
What is your view? (check all that apply)
(Image: Melania Trump at White House screening of the documentary, Jan 24, 2026. Via @MelaniaTrump on X)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Weekend box office will exceed $1.75m
30%
40%
24%
68%
15%
4%
16%
26%
40%
24%
30%
Will not
51%
38%
60%
7%
61%
85%
39%
57%
42%
63%
51%
Will be a better movie than critics say
38%
49%
30%
88%
18%
1%
53%
27%
48%
28%
38%
Will not
51%
38%
60%
4%
59%
87%
36%
57%
44%
60%
51%
I'm interested in seeing it
33%
34%
32%
71%
22%
4%
25%
24%
43%
28%
33%
Am not
57%
48%
62%
10%
72%
91%
42%
67%
47%
65%
57%
Not sure
7%
10%
5%
11%
8%
3%
41%
6%
3%
2%
7%
Don't care
11%
12%
8%
7%
16%
12%
3%
17%
9%
9%
11%
Q2. The idea for the documentary was brought to studios by a representative of Melania Trump's after her husband Donald won the 2024 election. Three studios bid for the rights, with Amazon MGM the winner at $40m, Disney next at $14m, and Paramount at $4m. Amazon MGM will spend another $35m promoting the movie, for a total spend of at least $75m (with $28m going to Melania Trump).
As mentioned earlier, documentaries released to a similar number of screens have grossed about $5m at the box office in their opening weekend. Of course Amazon MGM will stream it as well, though it's difficult to estimate the value accrued to the streaming platform from any individual production. For comparison, Netflix paid $10m for Knock Down the House, a documentary about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and three other progressive candidates in their 2018 primaries.
What do you think of Amazon MGM spending $75m on this movie? (check all that apply)
As mentioned earlier, documentaries released to a similar number of screens have grossed about $5m at the box office in their opening weekend. Of course Amazon MGM will stream it as well, though it's difficult to estimate the value accrued to the streaming platform from any individual production. For comparison, Netflix paid $10m for Knock Down the House, a documentary about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and three other progressive candidates in their 2018 primaries.
What do you think of Amazon MGM spending $75m on this movie? (check all that apply)
(Image: Trump rings opening bell at NYSE as part of film promotion, Jan 28, 2026. Getty // AFP)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Film will earn more than $75m for Amazon
29%
34%
25%
69%
10%
1%
33%
12%
40%
27%
29%
Will not
61%
59%
62%
19%
72%
93%
67%
77%
47%
64%
61%
Amazon will get "rewarded" by President Trump
58%
59%
57%
33%
61%
78%
77%
68%
45%
61%
58%
Will not
26%
26%
27%
45%
21%
13%
6%
16%
37%
27%
26%
Amazon did it solely to be on Trump's good side
64%
55%
70%
25%
71%
94%
58%
79%
52%
69%
64%
Did not
23%
29%
18%
53%
11%
1%
20%
12%
33%
19%
23%
I consider it corrupt, and harmful
43%
30%
51%
0%
47%
77%
16%
61%
37%
41%
43%
Corrupt but too minor to be harmful
15%
19%
12%
10%
20%
17%
58%
5%
8%
22%
15%
Not corrupt
34%
43%
28%
78%
18%
1%
20%
27%
44%
29%
34%
Not sure
6%
6%
5%
7%
9%
4%
20%
7%
4%
2%
6%
Don't care
4%
6%
3%
6%
8%
2%
0%
2%
6%
6%
4%
Q3. Brett Ratner directed and produced Melania. He previously directed the Rush Hour series, The Family Man, Red Dragon, X-Men: The Last Stand, Tower Heist, and Hercules. He produced the Horrible Bosses series and executive produced The Revenant and War Dogs.
In 2017, six women, including actresses Olivia Munn and Natasha Henstridge, accused Ratner of sexual assault and harassment. Ratner denied the allegations. Subsequently, Warner Brothers and other studios scrapped planned Ratner projects and cut ties with him. Melania is Ratner's first film since 2017.
Your view?
In 2017, six women, including actresses Olivia Munn and Natasha Henstridge, accused Ratner of sexual assault and harassment. Ratner denied the allegations. Subsequently, Warner Brothers and other studios scrapped planned Ratner projects and cut ties with him. Melania is Ratner's first film since 2017.
Your view?
(Image: Ratner has pushed to direct a fourth Rush Hour film. Getty // Neilson Barnard)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Don't care
4%
6%
3%
6%
5%
3%
0%
0%
5%
9%
4%
Topics
Entities in this poll: (rate and comment)
