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July 17, 2025 1103 replies Error Margin: + 3%
Senate Finance Committee formulating a tariff bill. Senator Reed Smoot (R, UT), center rear. Washington, DC, 1929. Getty // Bettmann
Q1. Prior to 2025, the average tariff rate on goods imported to the US was 2%. Currently it is 15%, and would go to 22% if all the levies President Trump announced on April 2 (Liberation Day) come to pass.

Tariffs are charged to importers, though it's conceivable that foreign exporters 'pay' some by lowering the price they charge importers, and it's conceivable consumers 'pay' some via the importer raising prices.

If the tariffs remain at 15%, which do you think will ultimately bear most/least of the cost?

(Note: US corporate profit margins average 13%. Inflation last month was 2.7%, roughly in line with 2024 average)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Group A

Importers will bear most

8%
9%
7%
16%
7%
1%
3%
4%
14%
8%
8%

Foreign suppliers

18%
27%
11%
41%
4%
0%
26%
18%
18%
14%
18%

Consumers

57%
46%
67%
17%
77%
92%
63%
60%
51%
63%
57%

All equally

11%
11%
10%
18%
9%
4%
9%
6%
14%
11%
11%

Not sure

5%
5%
4%
8%
3%
3%
0%
12%
3%
3%
5%
Group B

Importers will bear least

14%
14%
12%
10%
22%
16%
6%
16%
12%
18%
14%

Foreign suppliers

28%
27%
30%
18%
34%
36%
30%
31%
27%
25%
28%

Consumers

31%
32%
31%
35%
27%
28%
28%
21%
37%
35%
31%

All equally

11%
10%
12%
20%
9%
4%
9%
10%
14%
11%
11%

Not sure

9%
9%
10%
10%
7%
9%
11%
14%
7%
7%
9%

Don't care

1%
3%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
1%
0%
1%
Q2. Between 1950 and 2000, US annual deficits averaged about 1% of GDP, between 2001 and 2016 about 3.5%, and since 2017 about 5.5%. Total US debt is now 125% of GDP, its highest ever, and is projected to grow annually at 6% of GDP for the next decade.

Historically, when a country's debt exceeds 100% of GDP capital flows out of that country, though that has not yet been the case with the US, where peacetime debt first exceeded 100% of GDP in 2012. China's debt to GDP is 88% (growing at 4% a year), the EU 82% (growing at 3%)

Assuming US imports don't decline, a tariff rate of 15% would add 1.3% of GDP to federal government revenue.

From the options below, which do you think should be employed to reduce the deficit?
(check all that apply)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

Tariffs 15% or higher

31%
43%
21%
68%
15%
0%
9%
34%
40%
28%
31%

Raise income taxes

17%
19%
16%
1%
21%
32%
16%
21%
14%
20%
17%

Raise corporate taxes

54%
44%
62%
12%
69%
90%
62%
56%
49%
52%
54%

Raise sales taxes

4%
7%
2%
6%
7%
2%
10%
1%
5%
3%
4%

Raise other taxes

10%
11%
10%
3%
12%
17%
18%
8%
12%
7%
10%

Cut defense spending

45%
43%
46%
15%
66%
68%
57%
52%
38%
39%
45%

Cut entitlement spending

38%
48%
30%
69%
31%
10%
20%
47%
42%
32%
38%

Cut other spending

43%
52%
36%
64%
39%
24%
57%
40%
43%
35%
43%

Lower int rates (lowers int paid on debt)

40%
39%
41%
60%
37%
22%
33%
37%
46%
39%
40%

None of these — deficit not a problem

3%
4%
2%
4%
2%
3%
9%
4%
2%
1%
3%

Not sure

2%
2%
3%
0%
5%
4%
3%
4%
1%
3%
2%

Don't care

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q3. Last week, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods effective Aug 1. If it comes to pass, it would be the highest tariff the US places on any country. Brazil tariffs US goods at an average of 11% .

The US has a trade surplus with Brazil. The President said he levied the Brazilian tariff because that country's government is unfairly, in his view, prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. In a social media post about the tariff, Trump wrote "LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE."

The Constitution says the President can levy tariffs only to address a national emergency, otherwise Congress has sole possession of that power.

Is the prosecution of Bolsonaro a US national emergency, and do you approve of this tariff on Brazilian goods?
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Group A

Is a national emergency

14%
12%
15%
22%
9%
7%
20%
3%
19%
13%
14%

Is not

76%
75%
76%
61%
85%
88%
71%
88%
69%
76%
76%

Not sure

9%
9%
8%
14%
5%
5%
10%
6%
9%
10%
9%
Group B

Approve of the tariffs

30%
38%
24%
65%
10%
3%
34%
23%
36%
27%
30%

Do not

61%
55%
67%
22%
84%
93%
65%
64%
55%
66%
61%

Not sure

6%
4%
9%
10%
6%
3%
1%
10%
6%
6%
6%

Don't care

2%
4%
0%
4%
1%
0%
0%
4%
2%
0%
2%

April 5, 2025

41% supported Liberation Day tariffs

May 31, 2025

55% supported a federal court striking down Liberation Day tariffs, ruling they did not come out of a national emergency

Poll Comments (62)
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