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Trust Fund
March 18, 2025 1170 replies Error Margin: + 3%
FDR signs Social Security Act, 1935. Image via Wikimedia // Library of Congress
Q1. Social Security was created in 1935 to provide economic security to the elderly, and expanded in the 1950s to include support for workers who suffer certain disabilities. Retirees and their families account for 89% of Social Security payouts, with disability payments accounting for the remainder.

Social Security takes in funds from an employee and their employer while an individual is working, and pays out to the employee upon retirement or disability. The system is generally progressive in that lower income workers receive payouts that are a higher pct of what they paid in than higher income workers do.

What do you think of each aspect of this plan? (check all that apply)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

Moot: Against govt run retirement plan

16%
26%
7%
31%
16%
1%
24%
20%
16%
7%
16%

Support employers pay in to plan

74%
69%
79%
54%
82%
92%
68%
69%
73%
87%
74%

Oppose

6%
7%
5%
9%
2%
3%
20%
5%
3%
2%
6%

Support progressive nature of plan

61%
54%
67%
27%
73%
92%
64%
59%
55%
73%
61%

Oppose

17%
23%
11%
35%
10%
1%
14%
18%
21%
10%
17%

Support inclusion of disability plan

69%
61%
77%
43%
78%
94%
76%
57%
71%
77%
69%

Oppose

12%
18%
6%
23%
7%
1%
12%
18%
6%
13%
12%

None of these

1%
2%
0%
1%
2%
0%
0%
1%
1%
2%
1%

Not sure

4%
1%
8%
8%
1%
2%
0%
7%
5%
2%
4%

Don't care

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q2. Employers and employees each pay into Social Security at a rate of 6.2% of income/yr for an average working life of 40 years, thus about 500% of average annual income is paid in. Benefits pay out at about 40% of average income for 17 years, meaning 680% of average annual income is paid out, resulting in a net shortfall unless there remains a certain percentage more workers than retirees.

However, due to declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy, the projected ratio of workers per retiree going forward is low enough that Social Security is expected to not have sufficient funds to pay out a promised levels starting in 2034.

Of these options, which is the single best way to make up the coming deficit? (Note: reducing payouts includes increasing retirement age, reducing payouts to certain retirees, etc..)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

Reduce payouts to higher income people

26%
26%
25%
20%
27%
31%
12%
25%
26%
33%
26%

Reduce payouts to lower income

1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%

Reduce payouts to all

5%
8%
2%
8%
7%
0%
14%
0%
5%
3%
5%

Require current employers pay in more

8%
8%
8%
4%
12%
11%
4%
6%
9%
10%
8%

Require current workers pay in more

6%
7%
4%
8%
6%
3%
2%
4%
6%
9%
6%

Govt (aka all taxpayers) cover shortfall

13%
11%
16%
9%
12%
18%
0%
17%
15%
13%
13%

Tax incentivize having children

9%
7%
11%
12%
7%
6%
32%
5%
8%
3%
9%

Increase immigration of young workers

6%
5%
8%
1%
12%
11%
4%
10%
5%
5%
6%

Can't support any of these

20%
24%
17%
30%
15%
13%
22%
20%
21%
20%
20%

Don't know

5%
4%
6%
7%
2%
4%
0%
11%
3%
3%
5%

Don't care

1%
0%
2%
0%
0%
3%
10%
0%
0%
1%
Q3. President Trump and DOGE head Elon Musk have both spoken recently of hundreds of billions of fraudulent Social Security payouts to dead Americans. However, there is no evidence to support those claims, and a 2024 report put fraud at roughly $10b/year, about half a percent of payouts.

Some say the talk of fraud is a way to soften the ground to reduce Social Security payments, which are unsustainable unless the population gets much younger, or people are asked to pay in more.

Musk has said that Social Security's $1.5t in annual payments (22% of the federal budget) needs to be looked at if DOGE is to come anywhere near its goal of $2t in spending cuts. However, the Trump administration seemed to push back on that, saying the government will continue the payouts as called for in the current plan.

Do you think the Trump administration will move to reduce Social Security payouts?
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

Yes, on everyone

30%
23%
35%
5%
40%
52%
39%
32%
25%
30%
30%

Yes, on poor only

17%
14%
20%
2%
20%
32%
22%
17%
16%
16%
17%

Yes, on rich only

9%
13%
6%
19%
4%
0%
0%
13%
10%
7%
9%

No

34%
41%
28%
64%
28%
6%
27%
22%
41%
43%
34%

Don't know

8%
6%
10%
7%
7%
10%
12%
11%
7%
4%
8%

Don't care

2%
3%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
4%
1%
0%
2%

Jan 2025, 83% say DOGE will recommend cuts to entitlements

October 2015, 30% say make up Social Sec shortfall by paying out less, 40% say get it from somewhere else 

April 2015, 27% favor means testing (reducing payouts to higher income) 54% oppose

 

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