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Number Theory
November 12, 2024 1199 replies
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Image: Fat Finger
Q1. Our previous poll asked what were the two main reasons Donald Trump's share of the vote improved 4 pts from 2020 to 2024.

Inflation and immigration under Biden/Harris were by far the top 2 vote getters, with inflation edging immigration for the top spot. Today's poll asks about Trump policy proposals and their potential impact on inflation.

Among Trump's most consistent economic positions during the campaign was substantially higher tariffs.

What do you think the outcome will be with regard to tariffs and inflation?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Group A

Substantially higher tariffs will happen

83%
78%
87%
80%
81%
87%
88%
78%
85%
82%

Won't happen

7%
8%
5%
8%
8%
5%
0%
3%
9%
11%

Don't know

10%
13%
8%
12%
10%
8%
12%
18%
5%
7%
Group B

If happens, would mean higher inflation

53%
41%
63%
8%
61%
97%
73%
52%
44%
56%

Lower inflation

26%
28%
23%
51%
22%
1%
15%
15%
36%
28%

No impact

16%
25%
9%
34%
8%
0%
9%
26%
15%
11%

Don't know

5%
5%
5%
7%
9%
2%
3%
7%
5%
4%

Don't care

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q2. Trump has also promised mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.

What do you think the outcome will be with regard to deportations and inflation?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Group A

Deportations of more than 4m will happen

69%
69%
69%
82%
60%
57%
55%
70%
72%
73%

Won't happen

19%
22%
17%
11%
26%
26%
24%
20%
17%
19%

Don't know

11%
9%
14%
7%
13%
15%
21%
11%
10%
7%
Group B

If happens, would mean higher inflation

45%
32%
56%
1%
49%
90%
52%
49%
38%
49%

Lower inflation

33%
39%
28%
66%
23%
1%
15%
30%
43%
28%

No impact

16%
23%
10%
26%
19%
5%
21%
16%
15%
15%

Don't know

5%
5%
6%
6%
8%
3%
12%
4%
4%
6%

Don't care

0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
Q3. Trump has promised tax cuts on tips and social security benefits, corporate tax cuts, repealing the SALT deduction cap, and extending his 2017 tax cuts.

What do you think the outcome will be with regard to tax cuts and inflation?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Group A

Significant tax cuts will happen

80%
86%
74%
95%
77%
64%
88%
78%
83%
71%

Won't happen

14%
11%
18%
4%
12%
26%
0%
17%
13%
22%

Don't know

6%
3%
8%
1%
10%
9%
12%
5%
3%
6%
Group B

If happens, would mean higher inflation

36%
26%
46%
1%
44%
70%
34%
39%
31%
42%

Lower inflation

39%
50%
30%
76%
25%
4%
31%
34%
49%
34%

No impact

16%
21%
11%
18%
17%
14%
22%
19%
13%
14%

Don't know

8%
3%
12%
5%
13%
11%
12%
7%
7%
9%

Don't care

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

Oct 2024

50/44 approve/disapprove of mass deportation. 68/20 think/don't think it will happen if Trump elected. 51/34 say it would/wouldn't cause serious disruption to food market

Sept 2024

51% approved a corp tax hike promisted by Harris, 44% disapproved. 

42/52 approve/disapprove on 60% tariffs on China suggested by Trump

47/47 approve/disapprove 20% tariffs on all other countries suggested by Trump

 

Poll Comments (49)
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• Donald Trump