Friday, 06 Dec On this day ...
Image: Getty // Sean Gladwell
Q1. The 2020 popular vote was Biden 51.3% (81m votes) Trump 46.9% (74m)
With about 7% still outstanding, the 2024 count is Harris 47.9% (70m), Trump 50.5% (74m). The remaining vote is likely to be more for Harris as it is from the West Cost.
Presuming the final result is Harris 48.2% (75m) Trump 50.2% (80m) what do you think are the TWO main reasons Trump's share increased from 46.9% to 50.2%? (please choose up to TWO)
With about 7% still outstanding, the 2024 count is Harris 47.9% (70m), Trump 50.5% (74m). The remaining vote is likely to be more for Harris as it is from the West Cost.
Presuming the final result is Harris 48.2% (75m) Trump 50.2% (80m) what do you think are the TWO main reasons Trump's share increased from 46.9% to 50.2%? (please choose up to TWO)
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Immigration under Biden/Harris
53%
61%
46%
80%
44%
26%
53%
36%
60%
60%
Legal cases against Trump
6%
6%
7%
9%
8%
4%
10%
3%
6%
9%
Harris worse candidate than 2020 Biden
21%
28%
14%
37%
25%
3%
22%
21%
22%
17%
More Silicon Valley Trump support
9%
6%
12%
1%
12%
17%
9%
7%
9%
12%
Inflation under Biden/Harris
56%
71%
44%
77%
52%
37%
60%
55%
60%
51%
Covid factor in 2020 not 2024
9%
10%
7%
6%
13%
10%
28%
3%
6%
7%
Biden didn't drop out until July
21%
20%
21%
4%
35%
34%
37%
20%
15%
21%
Assassination attempt against Trump
11%
13%
9%
13%
15%
9%
20%
11%
8%
11%
Prison gender care ads against Harris
12%
8%
16%
7%
13%
17%
20%
10%
12%
10%
Improved Trump campaign staff v 2020
5%
5%
5%
7%
10%
2%
5%
3%
6%
7%
VP choices
6%
9%
4%
12%
9%
0%
12%
3%
7%
7%
Trump/Harris difference on Ukraine
6%
5%
6%
7%
9%
3%
4%
3%
8%
6%
Trump/Harris difference on Israel
11%
10%
12%
11%
12%
12%
28%
8%
9%
9%
Other
20%
10%
28%
6%
21%
34%
21%
21%
21%
15%
Don't know
4%
1%
6%
0%
5%
7%
0%
10%
1%
3%
Don't care
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
2%
0%
1%
1%
1%
Q2. Polling averages had Harris by 1 in WI, 1 in MI, and tied in PA. Actual results were Trump by 1, 1 and 2. The polls had a margin of error of +/- 3%. The actual error of 2% was within the margin, but it was the same direction in all three states.
How would you describe these polls?
How would you describe these polls?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Really accurate
2%
1%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
5%
2%
Accurate
20%
22%
19%
18%
25%
21%
8%
27%
21%
18%
Neither accurate or inaccurate
21%
15%
25%
16%
23%
25%
20%
18%
21%
23%
Inaccurate
31%
35%
26%
36%
26%
27%
44%
27%
26%
33%
Really inaccurate
14%
16%
12%
16%
11%
13%
9%
15%
15%
13%
Don't know
6%
3%
9%
3%
8%
9%
9%
6%
5%
5%
Don't care
6%
8%
5%
8%
5%
5%
9%
5%
6%
6%
Q3. During Trump's first term, his approval rating was, for the most part, between 41% and 45%.
Do you approve of Donald Trump, and what do you think his approval rating is currently?
Do you approve of Donald Trump, and what do you think his approval rating is currently?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Don't care
4%
3%
5%
2%
3%
7%
0%
7%
2%
7%
Exit poll data 2020 to 2024:
Hispanic women +39 Dem to +22 Dem
Hispanic men +23 Dem to +12 GOP
White men +23 GOP to +23 GOP
White women +11 GOP to +8 GOP
White college degree +6 Dem to +9 Dem
18-29 yr olds +24 Dem to +11 Dem
65+ yrd olds +5 GOP to +0 GOP.
Rural +15 GOP to +30 GOP
Suburban +2 Dem to +4 GOP
25% of women who are pro-choice voted for Trump, 25% of Hispanics who oppose mass deportation voted for Trump.
Entities in this poll: (click to rate or comment on)
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