Friday, 06 Dec On this day ...
CBS's Charles Collingwood with computer that forecast 1952 election based on early returns. Image: Life Picture Collection
Q1. Today's questions come via user submission.
State and local governments administer elections and are responsible for counting votes and maintaining an official record of who won and by how much. But they do not declare winners until all their votes are tabulated and certified, which may take days or weeks after voting has ended.
In the time between when voting concludes and when all a state’s votes have been tabulated no state or local government entity declares a winner.
When do you think a state government should declare a winner in their state's presidential vote?
State and local governments administer elections and are responsible for counting votes and maintaining an official record of who won and by how much. But they do not declare winners until all their votes are tabulated and certified, which may take days or weeks after voting has ended.
In the time between when voting concludes and when all a state’s votes have been tabulated no state or local government entity declares a winner.
When do you think a state government should declare a winner in their state's presidential vote?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
When they think they can predict winner
13%
14%
12%
16%
11%
10%
17%
8%
14%
12%
Once all votes counted
79%
76%
81%
73%
80%
85%
72%
84%
78%
80%
When submitted to Congress (mid December)
4%
5%
3%
5%
5%
2%
2%
3%
4%
6%
Other
3%
4%
1%
5%
2%
0%
0%
6%
2%
2%
Don't know
2%
0%
3%
1%
1%
3%
7%
0%
1%
0%
Don't care
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
1%
0%
0%
Q2. While governments do not declare winners until all votes are tabulated, some private organizations do declare winners based on interim results, exit polls, and other data. Most notable among these organizations is the Associated Press (AP) which has been doing it since 1848, and is typically cited as the arbiter of results prior to state certification. In other words, when you first hear a mainstream news organization say a winner has been declared in the presidential election, it’s because AP has made its call.
According to the AP website "In the past several general elections, AP’s accuracy rate has exceeded 99.9%. In the 2024 primaries, AP declared winners in more than 2,500 contested elections. We made two incorrect race calls, both in races for state legislature. One of the two was due to incorrect results reported by election officials, which historically is the primary reason for race call errors."
Do you trust AP when they declare a winner?
According to the AP website "In the past several general elections, AP’s accuracy rate has exceeded 99.9%. In the 2024 primaries, AP declared winners in more than 2,500 contested elections. We made two incorrect race calls, both in races for state legislature. One of the two was due to incorrect results reported by election officials, which historically is the primary reason for race call errors."
Do you trust AP when they declare a winner?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Yes
59%
61%
56%
31%
67%
85%
67%
65%
49%
62%
No
27%
28%
25%
53%
20%
3%
17%
21%
35%
28%
Don't know
13%
8%
18%
14%
11%
12%
16%
11%
15%
9%
Don't care
2%
2%
1%
3%
2%
0%
0%
3%
2%
1%
Q3. Exit poll results are highly valued because they are taken by actual voters rather than 'likely' voters. However, the media has generally resisted releasing exit poll data before the close of voting lest it taint the vote. Notable exceptions:
How do you think the early release of exit poll data impacts votes, if at all, and do you support early release?
- 1980 - NBC used exit poll data to project Reagan as the next president at 5.15pm PST
- 2004 - leaked data showed Kerry with a large lead in swing states at noon EST
- 2016 - Slate published the data from 8 swing states in real time. At 6.30pm EST they had correctly predicted IA, OH, PA, CO, NH, NV, but missed FL and WI
How do you think the early release of exit poll data impacts votes, if at all, and do you support early release?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Don't care
4%
5%
3%
5%
4%
4%
16%
0%
3%
3%
49 Comments on the Poll