Image: Fat Finger
Q1. The presidential election is Nov 5. Polling averages have Harris with 49% of the national vote, Trump 46%, which is tied within 3% margin of error. Swing state polling averages are even closer, most within 2%, and have a 4% margin of error.
Betting site Polymarket has Donald Trump with 59% chance to win, Harris 41%. Polling data analyst Nate Silver's model says Harris has 51% chance, Trump 49%.
Who do you think will win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and the electoral college?
Betting site Polymarket has Donald Trump with 59% chance to win, Harris 41%. Polling data analyst Nate Silver's model says Harris has 51% chance, Trump 49%.
Who do you think will win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and the electoral college?
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Don't care
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q2. Among the 100 members of the Senate, currently 47 are Democrats, 4 are independents who caucus with Democrats, and 49 are Republicans.
Which party, if either, will have 51 or more Senators, including in that count independents that caucus with them, in the next congress?
Which party, if either, will have 51 or more Senators, including in that count independents that caucus with them, in the next congress?
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrats will have majority
32%
19%
43%
3%
33%
60%
14%
28%
35%
45%
32%
Republicans
43%
54%
33%
77%
39%
10%
43%
44%
43%
38%
43%
Tied
12%
13%
12%
6%
13%
18%
19%
15%
9%
7%
12%
Can't hazard a guess
13%
14%
12%
14%
15%
12%
23%
12%
12%
9%
13%
Don't care
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
Q3. Among the 435 members of the House of Representatives, currently 220 are Republican, 212 are Democrats, and 3 seats are vacant.
Which party, if either, will have 218 or more representatives in the House, including in that count independents that caucus with them, in the next congress?
Which party, if either, will have 218 or more representatives in the House, including in that count independents that caucus with them, in the next congress?
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republicans will have majority
52%
69%
37%
90%
49%
15%
64%
54%
52%
42%
52%
Democrats
33%
24%
41%
3%
31%
64%
25%
32%
32%
43%
33%
Tied (which presumes at least one vacancy)
7%
2%
11%
4%
5%
10%
0%
11%
7%
6%
7%
Can't hazard a guess
8%
5%
10%
3%
15%
11%
11%
4%
10%
8%
8%
Don't care
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
Our poll of Oct 8 had it Harris 49 -- Trump 46 in the national vote.
Topics
Entities in this poll: (rate and comment)
