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August 3, 2024 1378 replies
mural169.jpg
Face of Paul Whelan from mural in Washington DC honoring 18 wrongfully detained Americans abroad. Image: Getty
Q1. On Thursday, a 24-person prisoner swap was executed between the US, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, Turkey, Norway, and Russia. Sixteen people were released from Russia to the West, and eight Russians were released from Western countries to Russia.

Three Americans were among those released by Russia — WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, Radio Free Europe editor Alsu Kurmasheva, and former Marine Paul Whelan.

Among those released back to Russia were Vadim Krasikov who was serving life in a German prison for killing a Chechen separatist in Berlin, and four Russians convicted of spying under assumed identities in Norway, Slovenia, and Poland.

Generally speaking, do you support this swap?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

Yes

70%
63%
76%
50%
70%
89%
76%
67%
63%
79%

No

19%
27%
12%
35%
14%
4%
20%
16%
24%
16%

Don't know

10%
10%
10%
14%
14%
6%
5%
17%
12%
5%

Don't care

1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
0%
0%
0%
2%
1%
Q2. Among those released from Russia to the West were eight Russian anti-Putin activists.

Among those released from the US to Russia were two hackers — one convicted in the US on securities fraud, the other convicted on credit card fraud.

There is no evidence the dissidents were released in exchange for the hackers, but generally speaking, would you approve of releasing Russian hackers from US prison in exchange for Russian dissidents being released from Russian jails?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

Yes

43%
32%
52%
20%
45%
65%
46%
38%
41%
49%

No

41%
51%
32%
66%
33%
17%
45%
36%
45%
35%

Don't know

16%
16%
16%
14%
21%
16%
5%
25%
15%
15%

Don't care

1%
2%
0%
0%
1%
2%
4%
0%
1%
Q3. After the swap, President Biden said this deal was possible only because the US maintains strong relations with allies, otherwise a number of the Western countries releasing Russian criminals and spies would not have done so.

The breakdown of those released from Russian prisons is 3 Americans, 5 Germans, and 8 Russian opposition figures.

The breakdown of those released from Western prisons is 3 from the US, 2 from Slovenia, and 1 each from Germany, Norway, and Poland.

What is your view of the importance of US alliances to this deal?
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

US has strong allies, deal depended on it

63%
56%
68%
33%
65%
93%
77%
64%
54%
64%

Has strong allies, deal didn't depend on it

16%
20%
12%
28%
11%
4%
19%
16%
14%
15%

US does not have strong allies

13%
16%
10%
26%
11%
0%
1%
12%
19%
13%

Other

3%
3%
3%
5%
6%
0%
2%
3%
3%
4%

Don't know

5%
4%
6%
8%
5%
3%
1%
4%
10%
3%

Don't care

0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
1%
0%

In June 2024, when asked if they though Evan Gurshkovich was a spy, as was alleged by Russia, 28% said they didn't know enough to say, 7% gave it a more than 50% chance, 16% gave it 25-50% chance

37% said they would approve of a Gershkovich for Krasikov exchange (Krasikov is the murderer released from the German prison Thursday), 47% said they didn't. 40% said it would happen, 44% said it wouldn't. 

57% wanted US journalists in Russia , 20% of those  said no rescues for them if arrested, 80% said with rescues. 

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