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Elections 2021
November 5, 2021 321 replies Error Margin: + – 5%
Credit: Claire Pullen for Fat Finger
Q1. In Virginia's governor's race Tuesday, Republican Glenn Youngkin beat Democrat Terry McAuliffe 51-49. The previous statewide win for Republicans was 2009. In 2016 Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump 50-44, and in 2020 Joe Biden beat Trump 54-44. Your view? (Please choose four, one from each pair)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Group A

The Youngkin win surprised me

26%
25%
28%
20%
25%
31%
24%
27%
23%
32%
26%

The Youngkin win did not surprise me

56%
65%
51%
61%
56%
55%
32%
56%
65%
61%
56%
Group B

This is a bad sign for Democrats in 2022

68%
74%
64%
77%
69%
60%
48%
77%
67%
80%
68%

This is a bad sign for Republicans in 2022

9%
7%
12%
3%
0%
16%
8%
0%
12%
12%
9%
Group C

This is bad sign for Joe Biden in 2024

56%
62%
49%
74%
56%
39%
48%
56%
56%
59%
56%

This is bad sign for Donald Trump in 2024

17%
15%
20%
4%
6%
30%
8%
13%
17%
27%
17%
Group D

I believe this election for governor was free and fair

70%
73%
68%
71%
69%
69%
48%
56%
77%
83%
70%

I do not believe this election for governor was free and fair

7%
6%
8%
6%
6%
8%
8%
13%
3%
7%
7%

None of these

2%
1%
4%
4%
6%
0%
0%
7%
1%
2%
2%

Don't know enough to say

13%
9%
15%
14%
13%
10%
40%
7%
9%
2%
13%

Don't care

0%
0%
1%
0%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q2. After Tuesday's results, Virginia Democratic Congresswoman Spanberger said "Nobody elected (President Biden) to be F.D.R., they elected him to be normal and stop the chaos," alluding to the President's agenda. Your view?
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

Most people who voted for Biden wanted him to be F.D.R

9%
9%
11%
9%
6%
9%
8%
0%
14%
7%
9%

Many people who voted for Biden wanted him to be F.D.R

13%
16%
11%
7%
6%
19%
8%
20%
10%
15%
13%

Some people who voted for Biden wanted him to be F.D.R

17%
17%
16%
9%
13%
25%
8%
7%
22%
20%
17%

A few people who voted for Biden wanted him to be F.D.R

10%
10%
12%
10%
13%
10%
8%
20%
9%
7%
10%

Nobody who voted for Biden wanted him to be F.D.R

21%
21%
20%
26%
25%
16%
8%
20%
23%
27%
21%

Don't know what Spanberger meant

13%
10%
16%
16%
13%
10%
24%
13%
9%
15%
13%

None of these

5%
4%
5%
6%
6%
3%
8%
0%
4%
7%
5%

Don't know

5%
4%
5%
6%
13%
3%
8%
7%
3%
0%
5%

Don't care

7%
10%
5%
11%
6%
4%
16%
7%
7%
2%
7%
Q3. West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin says he won't back Biden’s social spending bill without a detailed analysis of its impacts, delaying Democrats’ plans to pass both the infrastructure and social spending bills this past week. Your view? (Please choose up to five, one from each pair. If you don't agree with either in any pair, please don't select one from it.)
overall
custom
male
female
rep
ind
dem
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Group A

President Biden passing the infrastructure bill before 2022 elections would substantially improve Democrats' chances in that election

49%
48%
49%
19%
38%
79%
24%
56%
49%
56%
49%

President Biden passing the infrastructure bill before 2022 elections would substantially improve Republicans' chances in that election

28%
33%
22%
53%
38%
4%
32%
23%
26%
34%
28%
Group B

President Biden passing the social spending bill before 2022 elections would substantially improve Democrats' chances in that election

42%
36%
48%
10%
31%
74%
8%
40%
48%
56%
42%

President Biden passing the social spending bill before 2022 elections would substantially improve Republicans' chances in that election

32%
40%
26%
61%
38%
4%
40%
30%
30%
34%
32%
Group C

I would like to see the infrastructure bill passed

48%
43%
53%
14%
44%
79%
20%
43%
54%
59%
48%

I would not like to see the infrastructure bill passed

37%
42%
32%
73%
38%
5%
40%
40%
36%
34%
37%
Group D

I would like to see the social spending bill passed

40%
33%
47%
3%
31%
75%
12%
37%
48%
49%
40%

I would not like to see the social spending bill passed

41%
51%
34%
80%
44%
8%
48%
47%
35%
44%
41%
Group E

I would consider voting for Manchin if he ran for president

14%
21%
7%
24%
13%
4%
16%
13%
10%
17%
14%

I would not consider voting for Manchin if he ran for president

57%
54%
62%
47%
50%
71%
32%
70%
62%
61%
57%

None of these

11%
9%
13%
9%
13%
13%
40%
7%
7%
2%
11%
Self-described Conservative Democrat Manchin supports many broadly popular policies, and is bipartisan in an era where most voters say they want more cooperation between the sides.

However, his approval ratings do not reflect public appreciation— with each stance he takes that is not his party's, his net approval slips. He went from -9 (about average for a sitting senator) in 2017 to -16 in 2021, a period during which he crossed party lines in approving Jeff Sessions AG nomination, saying he'd like to see Hunter Biden testify at Trump's first impeachment, and opposing revocation of the Senate filibuster.

Bipartisanship today means a loss of support from your own party’s voters, and not making it up with gains from the other side or Independents.

Related Fat Finger Poll Result

Subject to Debate, Sept 2021

72% wanted infrastructure passed
47% wanted social spending bill passed

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