The most turbulent election season in recent memory finally comes to end this Tuesday—or will it? Due to the massive influx of mail-in ballots this year caused by the COVID-19 pandemic—93 million as of Sunday afternoon—many election experts have expressed doubt that a clear victor will emerge election night. The most recent polling averages have Joe Biden ahead by several points nationally, in key swing states like Pennsylvania, and even within striking distance of President Trump in Republican strongholds like Texas. Still, according to polling wunderkind Nate Silver’s forecast, Trump has a 10% chance of shocking pundits with an election upset harkening back to 2016. Then, the popular vote polling average had Hillary Clinton winning by 2.5 points. She ended up winning by 2.1, an “accurate” estimate, but in a handful of upper midwestern states the averages overestimated her share by 3-7 points. Trump will need a polling error much larger than 2016’s, though, to eke out a win this time.

Americans won’t just decide their next president this week, but also which party will control the all-important Senate that can make or break a presidency. Currently, Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, a narrow majority that is facing strong opposition in several Senate races across the country including Arizona, Maine, and even Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat in South Carolina. According to Silver, the most recent state polls give Democrats a 76% chance of flipping the Senate blue. Needless to say, Republicans are the 2020 underdogs. Still, stranger things have happened, and it’s anyone’s guess how this week will turn out. We asked Americans to take one anyways, and tell us who they chose for the highest office in the land. Here are three key things we learned:

National polling averages currently have Biden up 8.4 points over Trump, give or take a few points polling error. That number is fairly accurate according to how Americans voted in our poll, with a majority (51%) going for Biden by a seven point margin—though Independents favored Trump 49%/42%. In fact, the biggest difference between the two candidates was in how people voted/are planning to vote. A plurality (31%) of Biden voters did so by mailing their ballot, with only a mere 2% saying they hadn’t voted yet. Trump supporters, though, seem to prefer waiting until election day to vote, with 16% of respondents not yet voting. One other curious finding: 6% of Republican respondents said they voted for Biden, and 2% of Dems said they plan to vote for Trump.

The 8.4 point national polling average may show Biden with a clear lead, but a plurality (47%) of Americans believe it overstates Biden support versus 28% who say it’s accurate (i.e., within two points of the final result). That goes for polls in Texas (currently a dead heat) and in Pennsylvania where Biden is up five points. Despite 2016’s polling errors, it’s Democrats who are most confident that polls are accurate this time with a plurality (30%+) backing each of the three. A majority of Republicans and Independents, though, think that each poll is likely underestimating “shy Trump supporters,” skewing results in Democrats favor.

The result is closer than that for the presidential race, but half of Americans say they cast their vote for Democrats to flip the Senate, a five-point edge over Republicans holding their majority. That’s despite Independents (53%/40%) saying they voted for Republican control. Much of that five-point margin can be chalked up to women supporting Dems by 16 points over men and young people (age 18-44) also favoring a blue Senate by over twice as much as their GOP counterparts.